Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, warned last week that the rate of inflation in consumer prices is on its way to 5%. “Inflation,” he said, presenting the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report, “is being pushed up by a range of influences, primarily the past rises in commodity and import prices as well as the increase in the standard rate of VAT”.

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Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, said: “We suspect inflation eased back in March partly due to the fact that Easter occurred in April in 2011 but in March in 2010. This is likely to have led to different timings in the seasonal rises of some prices, for example air fares and hotels.

“Furthermore, petrol prices rose further in April, while food prices also likely increased”.

Looking further ahead, Mr Archer expects inflation to continue rising.

He said: “Consumer price inflation will hopefully gradually start trending lower in the final months of 2011 as the upward impact from VAT developments, high energy, commodity and food prices, and sterling's past sharp depreciation wanes”.

Energy expenses seem headed for sharp increases, triggered by political unrest in North Africa and the Middle East. The Bank forecasts a 15% rise in domestic gas bills and a 10% hike in electricity in the second half of 2011. This is all up, compared with the 5% increase for gas prices the Bank detailed in its previous report.

Oil prices continued to climb in April as civil war in Libya constricted supplies, while indicators from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) showed food prices rising.

By James Murray